To predict take‐up of private health insurance and edicaid following the U.S. upreme ourt decision upholding the ffordable are ct ().
Data came from three large employers and a sampling of premiums from . We supplemented the employer data with information on state edicaid eligibility and costs from the aiser amily oundation. National predictions were based on the ousehold omponent.
We estimated a conditional logit model of health plan choice in the large group market. Using the coefficients from the choice model, we predicted take‐up in the group and individual health insurance markets. Following implementation, we added choices to the individual market corresponding to plans that will be available in state and federal exchanges. Depending on eligibility for premium subsidies, we reduced the out‐of‐pocket premiums for those choices. We simulated several possible patterns for states opting out of the edicaid expansion, as allowed by the upreme ourt.
The will increase coverage substantially in the private insurance market and edicaid. s will remain desirable in both the individual and employer markets.
If states opt out of the edicaid expansion, this could increase the federal cost of health reform, while reducing the number of newly covered lives.