To outline a methodology for allocating graduate medical education () training positions based on data from a workforce projection model.
Demand for visits is derived from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and Census data. Physician supply, retirements, and geographic mobility are estimated using concatenated Masterfiles and certification data. The number and specialization behaviors of residents are derived from the 's rack survey.
We show how the methodology could be used to allocate 3,000 new slots over 5 years—15,000 total positions—by state and specialty to address workforce shortages in 2026.
We use the model to identify shortages for 19 types of health care services provided by 35 specialties in 50 states.
The new slots are allocated to nearly all specialties, but nine states and the District of Columbia do not receive any new positions.
This analysis illustrates an objective, evidence‐based methodology for allocating positions that could be used as the starting point for discussions about expansion or redistribution.
