Volume 52 | Number S1 | February 2017

Abstract List

Erin P. Fraher Ph.D., M.P.P., Andy Knapton M.Sc., George M. Holmes


To outline a methodology for allocating graduate medical education () training positions based on data from a workforce projection model.

Data Sources

Demand for visits is derived from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and Census data. Physician supply, retirements, and geographic mobility are estimated using concatenated Masterfiles and certification data. The number and specialization behaviors of residents are derived from the 's rack survey.


We show how the methodology could be used to allocate 3,000 new slots over 5 years—15,000 total positions—by state and specialty to address workforce shortages in 2026.

Extraction Methods

We use the model to identify shortages for 19 types of health care services provided by 35 specialties in 50 states.

Principal Findings

The new slots are allocated to nearly all specialties, but nine states and the District of Columbia do not receive any new positions.


This analysis illustrates an objective, evidence‐based methodology for allocating positions that could be used as the starting point for discussions about expansion or redistribution.