Volume 53 | Number S1 | August 2018

Abstract List

Zachary Hass Ph.D., Mark Woodhouse B.A., Robert Kane M.D., Greg Arling


To build and test a model that predicts community discharge probabilities for Medicaidā€eligible nursing home () residents who remain in the nursing home at 90 days after admission and, thus, would be candidates for the Money Follows the Person () program.

Data Source

The Minimum Data Set, Medicaid Management Information Systems, and Minnesota Vital Statistics file.


Cohort of 33, 590 nursing home stays that qualified for Medicaid by the 90th day of their stay from 383 Minnesota nursing homes from July 2011 to June 2013.

Study Design

Mixed effects logistic regression model to predict community discharge.

Principal Findings

The scoring system had a high level of accuracy in predicting community discharge for both the fitting and validation cohorts. Subpopulations with severe mental illness or intellectual disability were well represented across the entire score range.


Findings are being applied in the Minnesota's initiative (Moving Home Minnesota) to target Medicaidā€eligible residents for transitioning to the community. This approach could be applied to in other states.