Volume 48 | Number 2pt2 | April 2013

Abstract List

John P. Ansah Ph.D., David B. Matchar M.D., Sean R. Love B.A., Rahul Malhotra M.D., M.B.B.S., M.P.H., Young Kyung Do M.D., Ph.D., M.P.H., Angelique Chan Ph.D., Robert Eberlein Ph.D.


To understand the effect of current and future long‐term care () policies on family eldercare hours for older adults (60 years of age and older) in Singapore.

Data Sources

The ocial solation ealth and ifestyles urvey, the urvey on nformal aregiving, and the ingapore overnment's inistry of ealth and epartment of tatistics.

Study Design

An Model was created using system dynamics methodology and parameterized using available reports and data as well as informal consultation with experts.

Principal Findings

In the absence of policy change, among the elderly living at home with limitations in their activities of daily living (), the proportion of those with greater limitations will increase. In addition, by 2030, average family eldercare hours per week are projected to increase by 41 percent from 29 to 41 hours. All policy levers considered would moderate or significantly reduce family eldercare hours.


System dynamics modeling was useful in providing policy makers with an overview of the levers available to them and in demonstrating the interdependence of policies and system components.