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VOLUME 51 | NUMBER 3 | JUNE 2016

Afterword: Sample Design Is the Key

In a Methods Corner article in a recent issue of Health Services Research, Dowd, Greene, and Norton (2014) proposed a formula for the asymptotic variance of an estimator of the mean prediction (or difference of predictions) over a population from a nonlinear model. Such mean estimands are widely used in health services research when predicting average treatment effects from logistic, Poisson, and other nonlinear regression models. In these two-step calculations, the researcher first estimates the model parameters (“estimation step”) and then uses them to predict outcomes or treatment-related outcome differences (“prediction step”), which are then averaged over a sample.

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