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VOLUME 48 | NUMBER 2.2 | APRIL 2013


Simulating the Impact of Long-Term Care Policy on Family Eldercare Hours

Keywords: Aging/elderly/geriatrics;disability;health policy/politics/law/regulation;long-term care: home care/nursing homes;geriatrics;medical decision making;modeling: multilevel

Objective: To understand the effect of current and future long-term care (LTC) policies on family eldercare hours for older adults (60 years of age and older) in Singapore.

Data Sources: The Social Isolation Health and Lifestyles Survey, the Survey on Informal Caregiving, and the Singapore Government's Ministry of Health and Department of Statistics.

Study Design: An LTC Model was created using system dynamics methodology and parameterized using available reports and data as well as informal consultation with LTC experts.

Principal Findings: In the absence of policy change, among the elderly living at home with limitations in their activities of daily living (ADLs), the proportion of those with greater ADL limitations will increase. In addition, by 2030, average family eldercare hours per week are projected to increase by 41 percent from 29 to 41 hours. All policy levers considered would moderate or significantly reduce family eldercare hours.

Conclusion: System dynamics modeling was useful in providing policy makers with an overview of the levers available to them and in demonstrating the interdependence of policies and system components.

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