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VOLUME 46 | NUMBER 1 | FEBRUARY 2011


Predictors of Nursing Home Residents' Time to Hospitalization

Keywords: Accelerated failure time model; hospitalizations; Medicare; Medicaid; nursing homes; time between hospitalizations

Objectives. To model the predictors of the time to first acute hospitalization for nursing home residents, and accounting for previous hospitalizations, model the predictors of time between subsequent hospitalizations.

Data Sources. Merged file from New York State for the period 1998–2004 consisting of nursing home information from the minimum dataset and hospitalization information from the Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System.

Study Design. Accelerated failure time models were used to estimate the model parameters and predict survival times. The models were fit to observations from 50 percent of the nursing homes and validated on the remaining observations.

Principal Findings. Pressure ulcers and facility-level deficiencies were associated with a decreased time to first hospitalization, while the presence of advance directives and facility staffing was associated with an increased time. These predictors of the time to first hospitalization model had effects of similar magnitude in predicting the time between subsequent hospitalizations.

Conclusions. This study provides novel evidence suggesting modifiable patient and nursing home characteristics are associated with the time to first hospitalization and time to subsequent hospitalizations for nursing home residents.

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